Comprehensive comparison of the two leading prediction market platforms
US access via regulated DCM. Global access may vary by jurisdiction.
Prediction markets have emerged as powerful financial instruments, allowing participants to speculate on real-world events ranging from political outcomes to economic indicators. Two platforms dominate this rapidly expanding sector: Polymarket and Kalshi. Both operate under regulatory frameworks but differ significantly in their technological infrastructure, fee structures, and market approaches.
Kalshi currently commands approximately 60-62% of the prediction market trading volume, with trading volumes reaching $4 billion over a one-month period in October 2025. The platform has experienced explosive growth, capturing market share from competitors through its early CFTC approval and aggressive expansion strategy.
Its valuation surged from $2 billion in June 2025 to $5 billion by August 2025, reflecting investor confidence in regulated prediction markets.
Polymarket, while currently holding 37-40% market share, remains a formidable competitor with a distinct technological advantage. The platform processes significant volumes despite geographic restrictions, with plans for a US-facing relaunch that analysts expect will dramatically shift the competitive landscape.
Polymarket's valuation increased eightfold over several months in 2025, supported by a $2 billion strategic partnership with the New York Stock Exchange through Intercontinental Exchange.
Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) fully regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission since its inception. This regulatory status provides several critical advantages including enhanced transparency, fraud protection, and operational accountability.
The CFTC, an independent federal agency established in 1974, provides comprehensive oversight of Kalshi's operations, ensuring compliance with stringent financial market standards. All US traders can access Kalshi without geographic restrictions, as the platform operates under federal rather than state-level regulations.
Polymarket initially operated in a regulatory gray area, accepting international users while restricting US participants. The platform has since transitioned toward CFTC registration, enabling access across all 50 US states as a federally regulated event trading market rather than a gambling platform.
This regulatory evolution brings new requirements including Know Your Customer (KYC) verification procedures and potential modifications to deposit and withdrawal mechanisms. The blockchain-based infrastructure provides inherent transparency, with all transactions publicly viewable on the Polygon network.
Kalshi operates as a centralized exchange with a traditional order book matching system. Traders execute contracts denominated in US dollars through a centralized clearing mechanism, providing familiar functionality for users accustomed to conventional financial exchanges.
This architecture enables rapid transaction processing and straightforward integration with traditional banking infrastructure. The centralized approach provides familiar trading mechanics but concentrates operational risk in a single entity.
Polymarket leverages decentralized blockchain technology built on the Polygon network, facilitating peer-to-peer trading of outcome shares. All transactions utilize USDC stablecoins, eliminating traditional banking intermediaries and enabling borderless participation.
This crypto-native approach offers advantages in transaction speed, typically settling within seconds, and significantly reduces operational costs. The decentralized architecture also enables community-driven market creation, allowing users to propose and establish new prediction markets based on emerging events.
Kalshi's fee structure favors market makers through reduced fees for resting orders, incentivizing liquidity provision. The platform implemented a Fee Rebate Program effective January 2025, offering tiered rebates ranging from 20% on fees between $100-$250 up to 80% on fees exceeding $2,000 monthly. This program significantly reduces effective trading costs for high-volume participants while encouraging order book depth and pricing efficiency.
| Fee Type | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Trading Fees | 0% (no trading fees) | 7% of expected earnings (taker) 1.75% of expected earnings (maker) |
| Settlement Fees | 2% on net winnings | 0% (no settlement fees) |
| Withdrawal | 0% from platform (network fees apply) | $2 flat fee per withdrawal |
| Deposit | 0% (network gas fees may apply) | 0% for ACH 2% for debit cards |
| Currency | USDC (stablecoin) | USD (fiat) |
Both platforms offer extensive market coverage, though with different strategic emphases. Kalshi focuses on traditional financial and economic events including elections, Federal Reserve decisions, economic indicators, weather patterns, and business outcomes. The platform maintains a more conservative approach to market creation, emphasizing events with clear resolution criteria and established data sources.
Polymarket demonstrates greater market diversity and responsiveness to emerging events. Beyond traditional political and economic markets, the platform offers prediction opportunities on cryptocurrency developments, sports outcomes, entertainment industry events, and trending current affairs. The community-driven market creation system enables rapid deployment of markets responding to breaking news or cultural phenomena.
Kalshi demonstrates higher turnover rates, with traders frequently entering and exiting positions. The platform's average open interest of $189 million across markets indicates substantial capital commitment, though positions rotate more rapidly than on competing platforms.
This turnover benefits active traders seeking frequent entry and exit opportunities without significant price impact. The platform's fee rebate program further incentivizes high-volume trading activity.
Polymarket exhibits what analysts characterize as "stickier positions," with an average open interest of $164 million but longer holding periods. This pattern suggests participants maintain positions through event resolution rather than trading actively.
The median bet size of $34 reflects strong retail participation, while the platform accommodates significant whale activity during major events. Peak monthly active traders reached approximately 30,000 during high-profile events, with 72% male users aged 25-34 forming the core demographic.
Both platforms control over 97% of the prediction market sector, with explosive growth potential. Kalshi leads with 60-62% market share, while Polymarket's planned US relaunch could shift the competitive landscape.
The prediction market sector demonstrates explosive growth potential, with industry participants projecting eventual trillion-dollar market capitalization. Kalshi's international expansion into 140 countries, supported by its recent $300 million funding round, positions the platform for global dominance in regulated prediction markets.
Polymarket's partnership with the New York Stock Exchange through Intercontinental Exchange represents a strategic validation of blockchain-based prediction markets. This $2 billion collaboration aims to merge institutional credibility with consumer-focused innovation, potentially bridging traditional finance and decentralized prediction markets.
Both platforms face evolving regulatory landscapes as prediction markets attract increasing scrutiny from financial regulators and lawmakers. Bank of America analysts have characterized sports-linked prediction contracts as "untaxed gambling," potentially triggering additional regulatory requirements or tax implications.
The prediction market duopoly between Polymarket and Kalshi appears sustainable in the near term, with both platforms controlling over 97% of sector volume. However, competitive dynamics remain fluid as regulatory frameworks evolve and new entrants potentially emerge.
Prediction market trading involves substantial risk, including complete loss of invested capital. Both platforms require KYC verification and have different fee structures that can significantly impact returns.
Always conduct thorough research and understand platform-specific procedures before trading.
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